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Does Baseball Need a Salary Cap?

The Pirates have drifted aimlessly ever since Barry Bonds marooned them in the early 90s.

The NFL famously boasted a salary cap for years until this season, when it was removed entirely and may or may not return under a future collective bargaining agreement. Regardless, it seems like the same teams find themselves in the Super Bowl every year – Colts, Patriots, Steelers, repeat. This winter’s spending spree has once again sparked the salary cap debate. Supporters of a league-wide spending limit claim that the league is rigged in favor of the big market clubs, while opponents say that teams are already separated into the deep and shallow ends of the economic pool, yet small and mid-market teams like San Francisco, St. Louis and Florida have managed to win the World Series in recent years. The second argument has always seemed more viable to me because there’s simply too much evidence that says baseball’s postseason is unpredictable, and the salary of say, the eighth man in the lineup, has no effect on the outcome of a series. If you were thinking of Alex Rodriguez’ infamous appearance at the bottom of the Yankee order in the 2006 ALDS, give yourself a pat on the back.

For all the spending the New York clubs have endorsed – and the Boston franchise, and the LA clubs, and the Chicago teams, for that matter – they have but 5 titles amongst all of them over the last decade. Five. The 2002 Angels, 2004 Red Sox, 2005 White Sox, 2007 Red Sox and 2009 Yankees are the lone victors. Take Boston out of the equation and you have just three World Series from six of the deepest pockets in the league. The Yankees, after all, hadn’t won since 2000, and they only increased payroll from that point on, failing to get back to the World Series, which they managed to do only one time (in 2003) since the end of the 2001 series against Arizona. The Mets, who now look like they’re destined for years of obscurity in the NL East, have routinely been close to the top of the payroll leaderboard, yet haven’t made the postseason since 2006. October baseball hasn’t been common for the Dodgers either. The Angels routinely won the AL West until last year, and are primed for a recovery, but the Cubs have little excuse for their consistent mediocrity. The White Sox look like a fringe team every year even though they play in the worst division in the American League.

If you ignore the AL for a moment, and examine the National League, it becomes obvious how little payroll matters. The Phillies had the 4th highest payroll and performed admirably, but the next highest payroll for a playoff team was the Giants, who came in 10th at just under $100 million. Atlanta was 15th at about $84 million, and the Reds, who hadn’t played a meaningful game this late in the year since 1999, were 19th. San Diego won 90 games with the second cheapest sum of salaries (only the Pirates spent less). The Cubs and Mets, 3rd and 5th respectively, were both well under the .500 mark. Even in the rough-and-tumble American League, the Rangers, 27th in payroll, made it to Game 6 of the World Series. So much for parity.

Of course, it’s tough to argue these points to someone who roots for a small market team like Tampa Bay, who lost Carl Crawford and its entire bullpen, mostly to a division rival, no less. They most know, though, that there are often factors not related to winning baseball games that determine the financial prowess of a franchise. Stadium-based revenue is a big one – Oakland is always competitive but never gets anyone to show up to the park. The Rays have a similar problem. Stingy owners, like Jeffrey Loria of the Marlins, can stagnate a team incessantly. Mid-market teams like Milwaukee manage to survive, though (10th in home park attendance last year), so geographic factors and fan demographics probably act as a big piece of the puzzle too. It doesn’t make sense to lump all the poor teams together when some of them are finishing ahead of Boston and New York and others are struggling to win 60 games in a season. Contrary to the popular beliefs professed by media giants like ESPN, not all teams are created equal. Some are born with more toys than others, but that doesn’t mean the other kids can’t play. Sometimes it takes a few years. Just ask the ’01 D’Backs and ’97 Marlins.

World of Jenks

 

Jenks should adjust to Fenway's confines without much trouble.

Bobby Jenks, who first burst upon the scene in 2005 with the World Champion Chicago White Sox, has exchanged his plain stockings for those of the Boston Red Sox. Chicago non-tendered him a few weeks ago, fearing that he would command too much salary in arbitration. Boston jumped in with a two-year, $12 million deal, driving the knife into Yankee fans’ hearts even deeper. New York presumably had interest in the righthander, and to make matters worse, they failed to hold on to Kerry Wood, who signed a surprisingly cheap deal with the Cubs.

Jenks is known for his blazing fastball. Despite a dip in strikeouts the past few years, he managed to bounce back in 2010, striking out more than ten per nine innings. His walk rate has always been right around 3 per 9, and he’s inducing a high number of ground balls to boot (58.3% in 2010). Home runs are not common when he’s dealing (.51/9). It’s tough to not like this signing if you’re in Boston’s camp.

Boston now has three top quality relievers in Jenks, Jonathan Papelbon and Daniel Bard. While Bard may end up pitching the 8th, Bobby Jenks is a force to be reckoned with out of the bullpen. He instantly makes the pitching staff better. You can bet that more than a few clubs are disappointed that Jenks is the latest free agent to sign with baseball’s new highest-paid team.

Plan B – Avoiding a Panic Attack in the Bronx

Martin, who's still south of 30, gives the Yankees a clear advantage over the Red Sox at catcher.

Cliff Lee has returned to Philadelphia, which means that the New York Yankees’ offseason aspirations have deteriorated beyond repair. Or at least, one would think.

On Tuesday, all indications point towards Russell Martin signing with NY. This would give the team a legitimate, above-average catcher in addition to Jorge Posada, who will get most of his reps as the team’s designated hitter. Martin, who fell out of favor with the Dodgers after a spectacular run in the 2007-2008 seasons, has the potential of a 3-4 win player if he can rejuvenate his bat. As it is, he’s a solid bet for 2 WAR or so, which is average.

What this really means is that the Yankees no longer have an immediate need for top catching prospect Jesus Montero. A lumbering 20 year-old slugger, Montero’s ability to receive is questionable, but his bat is for real, and assuming he’s still with the organization in a few months, he’ll likely see a tour of duty with the Bronx Bombers before season’s end. However, with Posada, Martin and Francisco Cervelli in the fold, he’s of little use to the Major League roster. Coupled with the fact that NY’s pitching staff is in shambles, and may also lose Andy Pettitte to retirement, and it becomes obvious that Montero will be shopped for the best starting pitcher the Yankees can buy.

Brian Cashman has been willing to deal Montero in the past, offering him for Cliff Lee and Joakim Soria at various points during the past summer. There’s some indication that they’ve soured on this idea, though, and would like to see what he can do in Yankee Stadium before sending him off for an established veteran. A starting pitcher is priority number one. Zack Greinke is likely the best pitcher to be had, and if Kansas City is willing to swap him for Montero and a few lesser prospects, the Yankees will have to make a decision – try to win now, or win later. Whoever it is, if the right player comes along, Montero will be shipped out, and someone will take advantage soon enough.

Apocalypse Now: What Happens if the Yankees Don’t Sign Cliff Lee?

Cliff Lee will probably make his decision before the week's end.

The Yankees have been trying to acquire Cliff Lee for what seems like an eternity, even though this is the first time he’s ever reached free agency. While Cliff is expected to decide which team he’ll play for soon, that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s heading to NY. Texas has kept up with the bidding and other dark horse teams may be involved, such as Washington and the Angels.

If the Yankees don’t get Lee, the brass will need to do something drastic to keep up with the resurgence in Boston. Carl Pavano will never be seen in the Tri-State Area ever again after what happened the last time he played for the Yankees. If Andy Pettitte retires, the Yanks will need two starters. Armageddon is nigh in New York.

As it stands right now, the Rays have two of the better pitchers who look like trade candidates: Matt Garza and James Shields. The problem is that they still want to compete in the AL East, and trading a pitcher of Garza’s or Shields’ caliber to the rival Yankees would be suicide. Francisco Liriano of the Twins is probably off limits despite the rumored talks between the New York and Minnesota. Kevin Slowey is a possibility, but he’s hardly a consolation prize for Lee. Zack Greinke of the Royals is the best pitcher who should be traded, but there are concerns that his alleged mental instability will get the best of him in the Bronx. He’ll also cost top prospects – namely, Yankees catcher Jesus Montero, who is integral to New York’s plans this year.

Unless someone comes out of the woodwork, the Chicago White Sox look like the best candidate to trade a pitcher. Both Gavin Floyd and Mark Buehrle appear to be available for the right price. Floyd would net a greater return because he’s younger, slightly better and cheaper. Buehrle is owed about $14 million in his final year, so it’s conceivable that he would head east. The Sox and Yanks matched up on the infamous Nick Swisher trade a few years back. Maybe Kenny Williams isn’t so eager to deal this time around.

If all these options fail, the Yankees will have to overpay someone with prospects. A pitcher like Josh Johnson could be moved if there’s enough of a return, but it would have to be a lot. The Yankees know that if Cliff Lee snubs them they’ll have essentially no leverage in a trade. If that happens, say goodbye to every top prospect not named Montero. Brian Cashman may be in for many more weeks of winter.

Fantasy 2011: Players to Watch – NL East

Despite missing a third of the year, Utley was still one of baseball's most valuable players.

Chase Utley, 2B, Philadelphia Philies
– It’s easy to forget how good this guy is because of the injuries he sustained last year. Nevertheless, he managed to accrue 5.2 WAR in only 115 games. Wow. While Robinson Cano has become the trendy pick for the best keystone player in baseball, Utley is still the man. Chase also seemed a bit unlucky in terms of HR/FB% as well (11.2 in ’10, 13.6 career). A hitter with Utley’s power will typically exceed that number, so he should end up with 25-30 home runs again, assuming that he gets his usual 600 PAs. Mock Draft Central shows him at #43 overall, sandwiched between CC Sabathia and Dan Haren. You know what to do if a player of Utley’s caliber falls to you that late. Surprisingly, players like Rollins and Reyes are being taken before Utley, so using a 2nd or 3rd round pick to snag him is a good idea.

Josh Johnson, SP, Florida Marlins
– Johnson has put together a 3.20 FIP over 665 career innings, almost all of them as a starter, which is scary. If he played in a big market, he’d probably be a Cy Young Winner by now. Florida has to be happy that he signed an extension, but this doesn’t necessarily mean he won’t get traded away like every other Marlins star – if the right offer comes along, he could certainly find himself on a trip up the East Coast to Boston or New York. Regardless, he’s being drafted way too late. Mock Draft Central lists him at #83, between John Danks and Torii Hunter. This has to be due to his weak decision total last year (11-6 in 28 starts). Considering that Florida won 80 games, this is a bit surprising, but there’s a pretty good chance he’ll return to 15 wins or so in 2011. He’s as much of a sure thing as there is peripheral-wise, and he’d be one of the first pitchers taken if he got more wins. You’re not taking a chance on JJ if you can get him at any time after the 5th round or so, and if your league doesn’t count pitchers’ records heavily, take him earlier.

Mike Morse, 1B/OF, Washington Nationals
– The Nationals are known for a few distinct features that they boast: Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper and $100 million dollar man Jayson Werth. While the Zimmerman(n)s are arguably the team’s most valuable pieces going into the 2011 campaign, Mike Morse figures to get a decent number of PAs after bursting onto the scene last year. Once a top prospect in Seattle, Morse found himself in the minors on numerous occasions after failing to stick it in the bigs. In 2010 he managed to club 15 homers in ony 293 PAs, good for a .379 wOBA. His HR/FB% was almost 20, though, and his BABIP was a tick high for a career journeyman like himself (.330), but there’s no reason to think he can’t be useful if he gets enough playing time. Watch where he goes on the depth chart, and keep an eye on him if your club gets riddled with injuries. He’s not going to be drafted in your league unless his mother is managing a team, so there’s no need to use a pick, but he may come in handy down the road.

Big Money in Beantown

Adrian Gonzalez should be scary good for the Red Sox this year.

Carl Crawford for $142 million over 7 years. Adrian Gonzalez for four prospects and an inevitable $150 million extension. There’s no question these two players are superstars who instantly strengthen the Red Sox on all fronts, but at what expense? Adrian Beltre, who performed admirably on a cheap deal last year, is as good as gone now that Kevin Youkilis will be playing third. Victor Martinez signed with the Tigers for $50 million over four years, for which Boston will receive Detroit’s first round draft pick. One could argue that the losses incurred by the Red Sox were merely offset by the costly additions, and that the team has improved only marginally.

If we look at Fangraphs 2010 win totals for each player, we see that Martinez and Beltre combined for 11.1 WAR (7.1 by the former, 4.0 by the latter). It’s worth noting that Fangraphs uses UZR for defensive runs saved, which is a faulty statistic for measuring defense, so reverting those run totals to 0 gives us the purely offensive portion. That would yield a total of just over 10 WAR. Granted, if Martinez doesn’t catch that much, he’ll get docked a few runs for positional adjustment, but even as a DH, he was worth more than 2 WAR, and there’s no indication that he won’t be catching for Detroit. Beltre undoubtedly saw his offensive numbers improve because he played half his games at Fenway, but he’s always been a reputable defensive player, and he showed flashes of monster power in the past (48 HR in 2004).

With no adjustments, Gonzalez and Crawford combined for 12.2 WAR last season. Gonzalez will benefit largely by moving from Petco to Fenway, but he’ll also face tougher pitching in the American League East. His recent shoulder surgery may affect him out of the gate, too. In the end I think you’ll see an overall improvement in his offense, but not so much to point where he’s a completely new player. Park adjustments and league adjustments aren’t going to change his output by more than a win or so in either direction. Gonzalez has consistently been a 4-5 win player and he should be able to maintain that level of production for a while, although he may not have that kind of bat in 5-6 years when his inevitable extension runs out.

Crawford should reel in many a fly ball in left field, but the real benefit to having him out there is his ability to play good defense in bigger parks. Yankee Stadium, in particular, is cavernous in left, and the Red Sox got killed out there when Manny Ramirez was in uniform. Jason Bay was nearly as bad. Crawford’s hitting should get a boost, too, and his ability to go the other way will pay dividends. 2010 was a career year for him, though, so expecting 25-30 home runs is a bit ridiculous for a guy who’s topped out at 19. His job will be getting on base and scoring runs, not driving them in. For him to be worth his salary, he’ll need to put up 4-5 WAR, which should be a given for the next few years. The end of the contract may not be a lot of fun for John Henry and co.

Comparing the two duos is fair enough in terms of production – the new recruits should be better going forward. The issue is the amount of players given up and money committed. Crawford cost $142 million and Gonzalez will cost about the same if he’s signed to an extension.

That’s $300 million for two players, plus the loss of minor leaguers Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo, Reymond Fuentes and a player to be named later. First baseman Rizzo was expendable with Gonzalez’ acquisition, and Fuentes, an outfielder, would not figure into the team’s plans with Crawford in the fold. Kelly is the kicker. A 2008 first round pick, the young pitcher has been inconsistent in the minors but is a consensus top prospect and should turn into something useful, if not fantastic for the Padres.

The Red Sox can attempt to replace these prospects with the first round pick they’ll get from Detroit (assuming the Tigers don’t sign Cliff Lee, who they likely won’t). Overall, though, this seems like a move to win in the next year or two at the expense of several years down the road. Boston has a solid pitching staff that will be shaken up in the next few seasons as Beckett and Lackey age, so trading Kelly hurts. Matsuzaka is a huge question mark at this point, and Lester, the team’s best starter, will require some big money before long. Boston is well on its way towards becoming the Yankees of years past, which will help them in the short term. Even a team like Boston can’t support a payroll with more than a few $20 million players. The future – hardly a concern in the big baseball markets – may not be so glorious.

Kevin Towers is Taking Care of Business

Putting Upton on the trade block was just part of Towers' master plan.

I was quite surprised when longtime GM Kevin Towers was fired by the San Diego Padres in 2009. The team had just spun off two disappointing seasons in a row, but this followed the heels of a one-game playoff loss to Colorado in 2007, and Towers had been in charge of the Friars going all the way back to the team’s last World Series appearance in 1998. The Diamondbacks pulled a similarly confusing move when they canned Josh Byrnes last summer, who had gotten his club back to October after the Snakes’ pitiful run in the mid-2000s . Sporting one of the worst bullpens in Major League history, it seemed that Arizona’s pitching ailments needed a dose of KT’s medicine. He officially came on board soon after the conclusion of the 2010 campaign. Even during this short tenure, Towers has managed to stamp his name brand on the team with a few slick transactions, most of which should instantly rectify the pitching staff.

Towers showcased his ability to find underrated hurlers in San Diego, and he’s wasted little time in performing the same service in the desert. He snagged Zach Duke from Pittsburgh for a PTBNL, signed J.J. Putz to a very reasonable two-year, $10 million deal and traded Mark Reynolds to the Orioles for relievers David Hernandez and Kam Mickolio. Melvin Mora also inked a two-year deal to play third base in Reynold’s absence. Each of the players heading to Arizona was relatively cheap, and it’s not inconceivable that these moves alone will get the D’Backs close to contention. The Padres do not have the pieces to win 90 games again, the Dodgers are hardly any better than they were last year and Colorado will be hard pressed to get the same production out of their pitchers that they got in 2010. The Giants are still intact, but you’d have to think that their offense is still far too weak to simply hand them the division. Arizona certainly has a chance to make a splash. The Upton trade rumors were likely nothing more than a ploy to get some team to overpay for a star player with several years of team control attached. No one bit the bait, and Towers must have known that the 2011 squad would have been worse in just about any trade scenario.

Duke will presumably serve as the 4th or 5th starter, which is what he is. Hernandez may get a shot at the rotation, but I’d bet on him pitching in the late innings if anything. Mickolio should serve a similar purpose, although he’s less of a proven commodity (not that Hernandez is). Putz has the inside track on the closer’s role and should be the team’s best reliever. Mora figures to swing an average to above-average bat (Bill James predicts a 104 wRC+). Defensively, he may cost the team a few runs, but Reynolds was pretty bad at the hot corner and may end up being more of a first baseman in the future. All in all, these additions coupled with the inevitable improvement of younger players on the team like Ian Kennedy, Dan Hudson and Justin Upton should net the team a handful of wins. If they do nothing more from here on out, I’d expect them to end up around .500, with the potential for more wins if the bullpen can hold leads.

Kevin Towers probably has a few more tricks up his sleeve, but now that he’s put together a competitive reliever corps, he’ll probably hold off on any big moves unless something irresistible comes along. I’m interested to see how this bunch performs in 2011.

Fantasy 2011: Three Players to Watch – AL East

Here’s a few players to keep an eye on during your draft:

Rays GM Andrew Friedman is too smart to trade Shields for anything less than a big return.

James Shields, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
– He might be pitching for a different club next season, but he’s worth having regardless. Shields struck out more than 8 batters per nine last year, a career high, and his walk rate was basically the same as 2009. It also seems that the longball bit him far more often than it should, as 13.8% of fly balls left the park, a number that should come down a bit. If he returns to normalcy in 2011, expect him to perform like Dan Haren, picking up a solid number of wins and a healthy number of Ks. You can probably wait until the middle rounds to get him (think 8-10th). He’s at #102 on Mock Draft Central’s Average Draft Position leaderboard.

Luke Scott, OF/DH, Baltimore Orioles
– This guy seems to provide consistent, above-average production for the Orioles year in and year out. In 2010, he achieved new heights by posting a .387 wOBA. The best part is that his BABIP was a very normal .304, so his batting average should be pretty close to the .284 mark he put up. Home runs and walks are his calling card, though, so even if he loses a few base hits he’s still a threat, and likely the most underrated hitter of his caliber in all of baseball. Scott might finally start to gain respect from fans outside of the Mid-Atlantic, but there’s little reason for him to be drafted too early, and you’ll be able to grab him later than comparable guys like Adrian Gonzalez. Think about taking him around the 9th or 10th rounds if he’s still available. Mock Draft Central has him at #241, but assuming you’re playing in an ESPN or Yahoo! league, the default projections will cause him to go closer to #100 overall.

Aaron Hill, 2B, Toronto Blue Jays
– By far the most interesting of this trio, Hill was huge disappointment for the Blue Jays, hitting just .205/.271/.394 after posting a .357 wOBA in 2009. He notoriously posted the worst batting average on balls in play in the entire league (.196). What’s even more unusual is the fact that he has a .288 career mark in that category, and struck out only 16.1% of the time, and still Aaron barely kept his head above the Mendoza line. The best indicator of his bad season is the extremely low line drive percentage; just 10.6, compared to 18.5 for his career. He also hit more fly balls than ever before, leading me to believe that he got a little homer-happy after clubbing 36 home runs the year prior. Even still, his HR/FB rate was pretty low (10.8) for a power hitter, and no player in the game routinely posts BABIPs as low as .200, so Aaron likely got a little greedy and a lot unlucky in 2010, meaning that you should be able to draft him very late for a guy of his caliber, perhaps the 12th round or so. He has the potential to be the steal of the year; keep him in mind. Mock Draft Central’s board lists him at #46, which tells me that people are expecting him to bounce back big time. I like the other players in those rounds better (Uggla, Weeks, Kinsler), but if he drops much further than that, give him a serious look.