Apocalypse Now: What Happens if the Yankees Don’t Sign Cliff Lee?

Cliff Lee will probably make his decision before the week's end.

The Yankees have been trying to acquire Cliff Lee for what seems like an eternity, even though this is the first time he’s ever reached free agency. While Cliff is expected to decide which team he’ll play for soon, that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s heading to NY. Texas has kept up with the bidding and other dark horse teams may be involved, such as Washington and the Angels.

If the Yankees don’t get Lee, the brass will need to do something drastic to keep up with the resurgence in Boston. Carl Pavano will never be seen in the Tri-State Area ever again after what happened the last time he played for the Yankees. If Andy Pettitte retires, the Yanks will need two starters. Armageddon is nigh in New York.

As it stands right now, the Rays have two of the better pitchers who look like trade candidates: Matt Garza and James Shields. The problem is that they still want to compete in the AL East, and trading a pitcher of Garza’s or Shields’ caliber to the rival Yankees would be suicide. Francisco Liriano of the Twins is probably off limits despite the rumored talks between the New York and Minnesota. Kevin Slowey is a possibility, but he’s hardly a consolation prize for Lee. Zack Greinke of the Royals is the best pitcher who should be traded, but there are concerns that his alleged mental instability will get the best of him in the Bronx. He’ll also cost top prospects – namely, Yankees catcher Jesus Montero, who is integral to New York’s plans this year.

Unless someone comes out of the woodwork, the Chicago White Sox look like the best candidate to trade a pitcher. Both Gavin Floyd and Mark Buehrle appear to be available for the right price. Floyd would net a greater return because he’s younger, slightly better and cheaper. Buehrle is owed about $14 million in his final year, so it’s conceivable that he would head east. The Sox and Yanks matched up on the infamous Nick Swisher trade a few years back. Maybe Kenny Williams isn’t so eager to deal this time around.

If all these options fail, the Yankees will have to overpay someone with prospects. A pitcher like Josh Johnson could be moved if there’s enough of a return, but it would have to be a lot. The Yankees know that if Cliff Lee snubs them they’ll have essentially no leverage in a trade. If that happens, say goodbye to every top prospect not named Montero. Brian Cashman may be in for many more weeks of winter.

Big Money in Beantown

Adrian Gonzalez should be scary good for the Red Sox this year.

Carl Crawford for $142 million over 7 years. Adrian Gonzalez for four prospects and an inevitable $150 million extension. There’s no question these two players are superstars who instantly strengthen the Red Sox on all fronts, but at what expense? Adrian Beltre, who performed admirably on a cheap deal last year, is as good as gone now that Kevin Youkilis will be playing third. Victor Martinez signed with the Tigers for $50 million over four years, for which Boston will receive Detroit’s first round draft pick. One could argue that the losses incurred by the Red Sox were merely offset by the costly additions, and that the team has improved only marginally.

If we look at Fangraphs 2010 win totals for each player, we see that Martinez and Beltre combined for 11.1 WAR (7.1 by the former, 4.0 by the latter). It’s worth noting that Fangraphs uses UZR for defensive runs saved, which is a faulty statistic for measuring defense, so reverting those run totals to 0 gives us the purely offensive portion. That would yield a total of just over 10 WAR. Granted, if Martinez doesn’t catch that much, he’ll get docked a few runs for positional adjustment, but even as a DH, he was worth more than 2 WAR, and there’s no indication that he won’t be catching for Detroit. Beltre undoubtedly saw his offensive numbers improve because he played half his games at Fenway, but he’s always been a reputable defensive player, and he showed flashes of monster power in the past (48 HR in 2004).

With no adjustments, Gonzalez and Crawford combined for 12.2 WAR last season. Gonzalez will benefit largely by moving from Petco to Fenway, but he’ll also face tougher pitching in the American League East. His recent shoulder surgery may affect him out of the gate, too. In the end I think you’ll see an overall improvement in his offense, but not so much to point where he’s a completely new player. Park adjustments and league adjustments aren’t going to change his output by more than a win or so in either direction. Gonzalez has consistently been a 4-5 win player and he should be able to maintain that level of production for a while, although he may not have that kind of bat in 5-6 years when his inevitable extension runs out.

Crawford should reel in many a fly ball in left field, but the real benefit to having him out there is his ability to play good defense in bigger parks. Yankee Stadium, in particular, is cavernous in left, and the Red Sox got killed out there when Manny Ramirez was in uniform. Jason Bay was nearly as bad. Crawford’s hitting should get a boost, too, and his ability to go the other way will pay dividends. 2010 was a career year for him, though, so expecting 25-30 home runs is a bit ridiculous for a guy who’s topped out at 19. His job will be getting on base and scoring runs, not driving them in. For him to be worth his salary, he’ll need to put up 4-5 WAR, which should be a given for the next few years. The end of the contract may not be a lot of fun for John Henry and co.

Comparing the two duos is fair enough in terms of production – the new recruits should be better going forward. The issue is the amount of players given up and money committed. Crawford cost $142 million and Gonzalez will cost about the same if he’s signed to an extension.

That’s $300 million for two players, plus the loss of minor leaguers Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo, Reymond Fuentes and a player to be named later. First baseman Rizzo was expendable with Gonzalez’ acquisition, and Fuentes, an outfielder, would not figure into the team’s plans with Crawford in the fold. Kelly is the kicker. A 2008 first round pick, the young pitcher has been inconsistent in the minors but is a consensus top prospect and should turn into something useful, if not fantastic for the Padres.

The Red Sox can attempt to replace these prospects with the first round pick they’ll get from Detroit (assuming the Tigers don’t sign Cliff Lee, who they likely won’t). Overall, though, this seems like a move to win in the next year or two at the expense of several years down the road. Boston has a solid pitching staff that will be shaken up in the next few seasons as Beckett and Lackey age, so trading Kelly hurts. Matsuzaka is a huge question mark at this point, and Lester, the team’s best starter, will require some big money before long. Boston is well on its way towards becoming the Yankees of years past, which will help them in the short term. Even a team like Boston can’t support a payroll with more than a few $20 million players. The future – hardly a concern in the big baseball markets – may not be so glorious.