Kevin Towers is Taking Care of Business

Putting Upton on the trade block was just part of Towers' master plan.

I was quite surprised when longtime GM Kevin Towers was fired by the San Diego Padres in 2009. The team had just spun off two disappointing seasons in a row, but this followed the heels of a one-game playoff loss to Colorado in 2007, and Towers had been in charge of the Friars going all the way back to the team’s last World Series appearance in 1998. The Diamondbacks pulled a similarly confusing move when they canned Josh Byrnes last summer, who had gotten his club back to October after the Snakes’ pitiful run in the mid-2000s . Sporting one of the worst bullpens in Major League history, it seemed that Arizona’s pitching ailments needed a dose of KT’s medicine. He officially came on board soon after the conclusion of the 2010 campaign. Even during this short tenure, Towers has managed to stamp his name brand on the team with a few slick transactions, most of which should instantly rectify the pitching staff.

Towers showcased his ability to find underrated hurlers in San Diego, and he’s wasted little time in performing the same service in the desert. He snagged Zach Duke from Pittsburgh for a PTBNL, signed J.J. Putz to a very reasonable two-year, $10 million deal and traded Mark Reynolds to the Orioles for relievers David Hernandez and Kam Mickolio. Melvin Mora also inked a two-year deal to play third base in Reynold’s absence. Each of the players heading to Arizona was relatively cheap, and it’s not inconceivable that these moves alone will get the D’Backs close to contention. The Padres do not have the pieces to win 90 games again, the Dodgers are hardly any better than they were last year and Colorado will be hard pressed to get the same production out of their pitchers that they got in 2010. The Giants are still intact, but you’d have to think that their offense is still far too weak to simply hand them the division. Arizona certainly has a chance to make a splash. The Upton trade rumors were likely nothing more than a ploy to get some team to overpay for a star player with several years of team control attached. No one bit the bait, and Towers must have known that the 2011 squad would have been worse in just about any trade scenario.

Duke will presumably serve as the 4th or 5th starter, which is what he is. Hernandez may get a shot at the rotation, but I’d bet on him pitching in the late innings if anything. Mickolio should serve a similar purpose, although he’s less of a proven commodity (not that Hernandez is). Putz has the inside track on the closer’s role and should be the team’s best reliever. Mora figures to swing an average to above-average bat (Bill James predicts a 104 wRC+). Defensively, he may cost the team a few runs, but Reynolds was pretty bad at the hot corner and may end up being more of a first baseman in the future. All in all, these additions coupled with the inevitable improvement of younger players on the team like Ian Kennedy, Dan Hudson and Justin Upton should net the team a handful of wins. If they do nothing more from here on out, I’d expect them to end up around .500, with the potential for more wins if the bullpen can hold leads.

Kevin Towers probably has a few more tricks up his sleeve, but now that he’s put together a competitive reliever corps, he’ll probably hold off on any big moves unless something irresistible comes along. I’m interested to see how this bunch performs in 2011.

GM Review: Omar Minaya

Another season without a playoff appearance should give Omar the boot.

You may have noticed while visiting Incumbent GM that the little image next to the address bar is Omar Minaya’s sly visage. I felt it was the most appropriate way to represent the site because he has been on the hot seat for years now, but of course, has managed to maintain a paycheck courtesy of the Wilpons. The sabermetric community hasn’t tarred and feathered him quite as much as their favorite whipping boy, the Royals’ Dayton Moore, but Omar has hardly averted scrutiny in recent seasons. It has become almost habitual for the big market clubs to hand out lucrative contracts without much restraint. However, the recent economic climate is starting to affect these clubs in addition to the small markets, as we have seen much less competition for the services of $100MM players like Matt Holliday, who, in retrospect, looks more like the beneficiary of a philanthropic contribution than a contract extension.

So where do the Omar Minaya and the New York Mets stand in all of this? To be honest, he has to be rated pretty low in the pecking order of baseball’s executive talent. Signing the hopelessly erratic Oliver Perez to a pricey extension has eaten up a nice chunk of the payroll. John Maine may be starting to reap the “benefits” of pitching a ton of innings early in his career. While he is one of the league’s better pitchers, Johan Santana is not quite the same as he was with Minnesota, but he’ll still be bringing home close to $80 million from 2011-2013 (assuming a $5.5MM buyout of his 2014 club option). My personal favorite among the lot is Francisco Rodriguez’s deal – three years (09-11), $37MM and a $17.5MM option for 2012 that vests with 55 games finished in 2011 or 100 games finished between 2010 and 2011. With 66 GF last year, I’d say the odds are decent that he’ll get there, and it will be laughable to see that a closer with declining velocity will be earning more than the team’s best player, David Wright. Suffice to say, most of my gripes with Minaya reside on the contractual side of things. The team has minimal payroll flexibility beyond Wright and Reyes.

To that end, I will give due credit to Omar for locking up the team’s two most important players for several seasons. Wright and Reyes are necessary for any sort of postseason appearance to be plausible. You can’t knock him for the Carlos Beltran deal, which paid has big dividends over the last few seasons – Beltran has averaged just under 5 WAR per season since joining the Mets in 2005. Many Yankee fans have been quick to point out that the Bronx Bombers were smart to avoid Beltran when he was a free agent, but their hindsight isn’t quite 20/20. Jason Bay will eventually hit, but I can see the team regretting that contract in a few years due to his lousy range in left field.

Omar hasn’t made too many boneheaded trades. Brian Bannister and Heath Bell are the best players he sent packing. I can imagine them contributing to the 2010 Mets. Bell certainly developed into a better pitcher upon arriving in Petco, but he was the victim of some bad luck while still pitching at Shea (opposing hitters posted roughly a .380 BABIP against him from ’06 -07). Bannister has been solid if unspectacular for the lowly Royals. Carlos Gomez was traded by the Twins this offseason, and pitcher Deolis Guerra, who’s still in the minors, is the only other player from the Santana deal that would warrant a space on the 40-man. To a lesser extent, Matt Lindstrom and Jason Vargas, who were actually traded for one another at one point, would be nice to have in the organization.

Other than the highly publicized Santana deal and the Carlos Delgado heist, Minaya hasn’t been able to land any big fish through the trade market. Jeff Francoeur was acquired pretty cheaply and has been successful in his short Mets career. It will be interesting to see how he plays for the rest of the season. If his increased walk rate is sustained, we might be able to chalk this one up as a big win for Omar. Regardless, a rebounding Francoeur has been a nice addition to a team desperate for prime-aged talent. John Maine and Oliver Perez have made contributions on the mound, but injuries and inconsistency are causing them to wear thin. Minaya has done little to rectify the problems within the starting rotation and this has taken its toll on the team. Mike Pelfrey and Jon Niese have been off and on. Santana is still good but won’t be getting any cheaper, younger, or better.

What it comes down to is the playoffs. The Mets have missed it three years running. For a team that has a brand new ballpark, huge amounts of expendable cash, and access to the biggest market in sports, that is unacceptable. If Minaya can’t get the Amazin’s into October this time, he needs to go. The Wilpons have the money, but the fans deserve better from a New York franchise.