Apocalypse Now: What Happens if the Yankees Don’t Sign Cliff Lee?

Cliff Lee will probably make his decision before the week's end.

The Yankees have been trying to acquire Cliff Lee for what seems like an eternity, even though this is the first time he’s ever reached free agency. While Cliff is expected to decide which team he’ll play for soon, that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s heading to NY. Texas has kept up with the bidding and other dark horse teams may be involved, such as Washington and the Angels.

If the Yankees don’t get Lee, the brass will need to do something drastic to keep up with the resurgence in Boston. Carl Pavano will never be seen in the Tri-State Area ever again after what happened the last time he played for the Yankees. If Andy Pettitte retires, the Yanks will need two starters. Armageddon is nigh in New York.

As it stands right now, the Rays have two of the better pitchers who look like trade candidates: Matt Garza and James Shields. The problem is that they still want to compete in the AL East, and trading a pitcher of Garza’s or Shields’ caliber to the rival Yankees would be suicide. Francisco Liriano of the Twins is probably off limits despite the rumored talks between the New York and Minnesota. Kevin Slowey is a possibility, but he’s hardly a consolation prize for Lee. Zack Greinke of the Royals is the best pitcher who should be traded, but there are concerns that his alleged mental instability will get the best of him in the Bronx. He’ll also cost top prospects – namely, Yankees catcher Jesus Montero, who is integral to New York’s plans this year.

Unless someone comes out of the woodwork, the Chicago White Sox look like the best candidate to trade a pitcher. Both Gavin Floyd and Mark Buehrle appear to be available for the right price. Floyd would net a greater return because he’s younger, slightly better and cheaper. Buehrle is owed about $14 million in his final year, so it’s conceivable that he would head east. The Sox and Yanks matched up on the infamous Nick Swisher trade a few years back. Maybe Kenny Williams isn’t so eager to deal this time around.

If all these options fail, the Yankees will have to overpay someone with prospects. A pitcher like Josh Johnson could be moved if there’s enough of a return, but it would have to be a lot. The Yankees know that if Cliff Lee snubs them they’ll have essentially no leverage in a trade. If that happens, say goodbye to every top prospect not named Montero. Brian Cashman may be in for many more weeks of winter.

Fantasy 2011: Players to Watch – NL East

Despite missing a third of the year, Utley was still one of baseball's most valuable players.

Chase Utley, 2B, Philadelphia Philies
– It’s easy to forget how good this guy is because of the injuries he sustained last year. Nevertheless, he managed to accrue 5.2 WAR in only 115 games. Wow. While Robinson Cano has become the trendy pick for the best keystone player in baseball, Utley is still the man. Chase also seemed a bit unlucky in terms of HR/FB% as well (11.2 in ’10, 13.6 career). A hitter with Utley’s power will typically exceed that number, so he should end up with 25-30 home runs again, assuming that he gets his usual 600 PAs. Mock Draft Central shows him at #43 overall, sandwiched between CC Sabathia and Dan Haren. You know what to do if a player of Utley’s caliber falls to you that late. Surprisingly, players like Rollins and Reyes are being taken before Utley, so using a 2nd or 3rd round pick to snag him is a good idea.

Josh Johnson, SP, Florida Marlins
– Johnson has put together a 3.20 FIP over 665 career innings, almost all of them as a starter, which is scary. If he played in a big market, he’d probably be a Cy Young Winner by now. Florida has to be happy that he signed an extension, but this doesn’t necessarily mean he won’t get traded away like every other Marlins star – if the right offer comes along, he could certainly find himself on a trip up the East Coast to Boston or New York. Regardless, he’s being drafted way too late. Mock Draft Central lists him at #83, between John Danks and Torii Hunter. This has to be due to his weak decision total last year (11-6 in 28 starts). Considering that Florida won 80 games, this is a bit surprising, but there’s a pretty good chance he’ll return to 15 wins or so in 2011. He’s as much of a sure thing as there is peripheral-wise, and he’d be one of the first pitchers taken if he got more wins. You’re not taking a chance on JJ if you can get him at any time after the 5th round or so, and if your league doesn’t count pitchers’ records heavily, take him earlier.

Mike Morse, 1B/OF, Washington Nationals
– The Nationals are known for a few distinct features that they boast: Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper and $100 million dollar man Jayson Werth. While the Zimmerman(n)s are arguably the team’s most valuable pieces going into the 2011 campaign, Mike Morse figures to get a decent number of PAs after bursting onto the scene last year. Once a top prospect in Seattle, Morse found himself in the minors on numerous occasions after failing to stick it in the bigs. In 2010 he managed to club 15 homers in ony 293 PAs, good for a .379 wOBA. His HR/FB% was almost 20, though, and his BABIP was a tick high for a career journeyman like himself (.330), but there’s no reason to think he can’t be useful if he gets enough playing time. Watch where he goes on the depth chart, and keep an eye on him if your club gets riddled with injuries. He’s not going to be drafted in your league unless his mother is managing a team, so there’s no need to use a pick, but he may come in handy down the road.

What’s Wrong With Big Ben?

Ben hit 39 home runs in 826 PAs between 2008 and 2009. His power outage should end soon.

The savior of sabermetrics. The failed shortstop that the Astros let get away. The only hitter besides Albert Pujols and Joe Mauer who was able to produce over 8 WAR last season. Ben Zobrist has become somewhat of a diamond in the rough, someone who had been cast aside in favor of inferior talent, only to discover unforeseen potential at an relatively late age. The soon-to-be 29 year-old has garnered a reputation for stellar defensive ability and versatility, saint-like patience at the dish, and a developing power stroke. Even before his 2009 campaign, Zobrist was turning heads – he quietly posted a .364 wOBA during the 2008 “Cinderays” playoff run.

Why has Zobrist been homerless through over 100 PAs this year? The usual symptoms don’t tell us much. He’s been healthy. His BABIP is right where it was last season. His line drive percentage has actually risen since last year. The only thing I can find is that his swing percentage at pitches outside of the strike zone is sitting at a dangerous 27.6%. That’s up more than seven points from 2009, and a little bit higher than his ’07 percentage. This likely has more of a connotation with his depressed walk rate (under 10%, compared to 15.2 last year, and over 11 the year before). His FB% is also its lowest since 2006, but Ben’s ground ball rate is only up a few points, and his K rate hardly changed at all. It seems that several would-be fly ball outs and home runs have turned into line drives and the occasional grounder.

Zobrist may not hit 27 HRs again, but if he can start laying off bad pitches like he has in recent years, expect another solid campaign from the Rays super-utility man.