Flushing’s Finest No More?

When the Twins traded Johan Santana to the Mets following the 2007 season, rookie GM Bill Smith of Minnesota was lambasted almost immediately for making a short sale of his ace. Omar Minaya, who is still managing to receive paychecks from the Wilpons, easily made off with the best prize of his front office career. While Santana put up his “worst” numbers that year, the acquisition improved a potent yet shaky Mets rotation, and no one was about to argue for further regression upon Johan’s arrival in the offensively-challenged National League.

Santana provided nearly 8 WAR in his first two years in Flushing, somewhat justifying his contract extension, but hardly making him a bargain. His face numbers look evidently similar to those he posted as a Twin, but peripherally, he is not nearly the same pitcher. Santana struck out more than a man an inning with consistency for several years, dropped under 8 per in 2007, and has come in just under 8 in his first two campaigns with NY. This year, in 85 innings, he’s on strikeout life support, sitting not-so-mightily on 6.14 K/9. A below-average BABIP of .273 and an sales tax-like HR/FB% of 5.1 fuel his morose xFIP of 4.63. Out of all eligible pitchers, Fangraphs xFIP “leaderboard” has Santana putting up the 24th worst FIP going forward. He’s sulking in between Fausto Carmona and Paul Maholm (no, this is not a joke – either Carmona and Maholm are better than we seem to think, or Santana has truly gotten to be this mediocre). For what it’s worth, Johan has essentially hit career lows of velocity on all his pitches. For a guy who’s been gravitating towards the change-up for a few years now, a loss of speed is bad, bad news.

I’m not trying to say that Johan Santana is a bad pitcher. He’s not. In all likelihood, he’ll end up closer to his current numbers than his updated projections. But in the long term, which is to say, the remainder of his gargantuan contract, we have to consider the possibility that he’ll be more like Barry Zito is right now and less like old Johan.

When asked about his ever-declining velocity, Santana gave this reaction.

Don’t Treat Randy Like Tom and Carlos

The 27 year-old Wells has quietly been Chicago's best pitcher since last season.

The Chicago Cubs have not been shy about addressing issues within their starting rotation this year. Both Carlos Zambrano and Tom Gorzelanny have been demoted to the bullpen at some point during the young 2010 season. Big Z has recently returned to starting, but TG hasn’t been as fortunate, despite gaudy K:BB totals thus far. It appears that the latest Cubs pitcher on the chopping block is Randy Wells, who has been infamous for his recent struggles in the first inning. However, a closer look at his peripherals shows us that he’s hardly been as bad as Chicago seems to think.

After posting a nice 3.88 FIP in 2009, Wells has improved to 3.44 this year (3.64 xFIP) by keeping the ball in the park, minimizing free passes and getting a ton of ground balls (almost 47%). From the outset, he doesn’t appear to do anything special – he’s simply above average in each facet of pitching, with the exception of strikeouts. A bad ERA has tainted his shine in the eyes of some, and this is unfair to Randy. If you are a believer in FIP and xFIP, as I am, you also acknowledge the possibility that he might be Chicago’s best pitcher. Opposing batters are swinging at more pitches out of the zone, yet they are making contact a lesser percentage of the time compared to last year. Coupled with his persistent ability to throw strikes early in the count, Randy’s improving efforts to get hitters to swing and miss are quite promising.

I find it hard to believe that someone within the organization hasn’t seen the .359 BABIP and 66.3 LOB% and thought twice about messing with the young hurler. That’s simply a product of bad luck and defense. The Cubs would benefit greatly by keeping Wells in the rotation until and after his misfortunes normalize. The poor guy even addressed the media, claiming his difficulties have been mental in nature. Randy, please don’t let the media guilt you into losing trust in your stuff. Hopefully Chicago should figure this thing out sooner rather than later. The most beloved American baseball team outside of Boston couldn’t have totally overlooked the facts that I discussed in the previous paragraphs.

Then again, we have overestimated the wisdom of front office personnel before. Whatever the Cubs do with Randy, I’m sure many smart teams will be asking about him come the trade deadline as they recognize the remarkable skills hidden behind a facade of media scrutiny.

What’s Wrong With Big Ben?

Ben hit 39 home runs in 826 PAs between 2008 and 2009. His power outage should end soon.

The savior of sabermetrics. The failed shortstop that the Astros let get away. The only hitter besides Albert Pujols and Joe Mauer who was able to produce over 8 WAR last season. Ben Zobrist has become somewhat of a diamond in the rough, someone who had been cast aside in favor of inferior talent, only to discover unforeseen potential at an relatively late age. The soon-to-be 29 year-old has garnered a reputation for stellar defensive ability and versatility, saint-like patience at the dish, and a developing power stroke. Even before his 2009 campaign, Zobrist was turning heads – he quietly posted a .364 wOBA during the 2008 “Cinderays” playoff run.

Why has Zobrist been homerless through over 100 PAs this year? The usual symptoms don’t tell us much. He’s been healthy. His BABIP is right where it was last season. His line drive percentage has actually risen since last year. The only thing I can find is that his swing percentage at pitches outside of the strike zone is sitting at a dangerous 27.6%. That’s up more than seven points from 2009, and a little bit higher than his ’07 percentage. This likely has more of a connotation with his depressed walk rate (under 10%, compared to 15.2 last year, and over 11 the year before). His FB% is also its lowest since 2006, but Ben’s ground ball rate is only up a few points, and his K rate hardly changed at all. It seems that several would-be fly ball outs and home runs have turned into line drives and the occasional grounder.

Zobrist may not hit 27 HRs again, but if he can start laying off bad pitches like he has in recent years, expect another solid campaign from the Rays super-utility man.

Colby Lewis Comes Full Circle

His control isn't brilliant, but the K rate makes up for it.

It seems like eons ago that the Texas Rangers were full of aging veterans, devoid of prospects, and indebted to some horrendous contracts. I can hardly remember the days of Chan Ho Park, Ismael Valdez, Rafael Palmeiro, and A-Rod taking the field in Arlington. It was four years ago that Kevin Millwood first donned the red, white and blue uniform, and Rodriguez’ successor, Alfonso Soriano, has played on two other teams since being traded (who’d be on his third by now if it weren’t for a horrible contract).

Today, the Rangers are the envy of many mid-market franchises throughout baseball. They have payroll flexibility, but most of their resources have been spent on building the farm system. Most of the old guard is long gone; Michael Young is about the only player remaining from the “glory days” of the early 2000s. Well, if you don’t count Colby Lewis, that is.

Lewis was a prized pitching prospect back in the day. The Rangers showed the utmost patience with their once-young starter, as he put up an ERA of 7.30 (5.77 FIP) over 127 innings in 2003. That’s a pretty awful line to put up these days, but Texas hardly had any better options back then. Colby would bounce around with a few teams before leaving MLB for Japan after the 2007 season. After two spectacular seasons with the Hiroshima Carp, the Rangers felt Lewis was worth a two-year, $5 million deal. The gamble looks pretty good in the early going, and it’s not as if the NPB is full of scrubs, either. Most feel it’s on par with North America’s AAA level, but likely a little better.

The former first round pick struck out more than a man an inning from 2008-2009, and walked less than one per nine. It’s hard to argue with Texas’ decision to bring him back. He’s carried his recent success over to the bigs, racking up 28 Ks in 23.2 innings, versus a less impressive walk total of 12. However, he has a normal .317 BABIP against this season, and 8.3% of fly balls have left the park (two HRs allowed). Lewis’ filthy slider has largely contributed to opponents swinging at 32.3% of pitches outside the strike zone. This in itself is nothing new, as he had posted positive run values on his slider before, including 2003. His fastball command seems to have improved though, and his first-pitch strike percentage is almost 60%, which would be a career high if he can maintain it. Collectively, these factors have produced a 3.62 FIP (3.91 xFIP), meaning that Lewis has more or less lived up to his $1.75 million salary already.

It’s not likely that Lewis is going to be the control artist he was overseas. It’s also questionable as to whether he will be able to strike out hitters at his current pace. However, the Rangers are a legitimate contender with a few questions to answer regarding the rotation, and Lewis has been the team’s most reliable starter along with C.J. Wilson. Colby has found something in the Orient that he didn’t have at home, and we should get a slightly better glimpse of his true talent with every outing, so stay tuned.

Carrasco Cut Loose

Carrasco quitely became one of Chicago's more stable relievers.

You would think that pitchers who post sub-4.00 FIPs in the American League for two years running would be a valuable commodity. You would also think that, when being paid the Major League minimum salary, the player is a bargain. So giving such a pitcher a raise from about $400k a year to say, $2 million doesn’t seem like a big deal right?

Apparently the White Sox were not willing to do so.

DJ Carrasco, formerly a Royals prospect and now a solid big league bullpen guy, has been non-tendered by Chicago. Apparently the South Siders were not willing to risk paying him an arbitration award, which would have likely been $2-3 million tops. For what it’s worth, Carrasco was worth $5.8MM last year.

Considering the fact that the team lost Octavio Dotel to free agency, it would have made sense to bring back the younger, cheaper player in DJ Carrasco. You can’t exactly burn Kenny Williams at the stakes for this move but the bullpen would have only been better with one of these guys back.

If the team offered him arbitration and tried to trade him, he wouldn’t be worth hardly anything because of his impending salary. While small, it would more or less eliminate small-market teams from the Sox’ list of trade candidates. But someone will throw him a one-year, $1MM deal and reap the benefits soon enough.

Is Damon Worth It?

Damon's left handed pull tendencies are perfect for Yankee Stadium.

Johnny Damon stood in the limelight of the 2005 Winter Meetings as he jumped ship from Beantown to New York. Given a 4-year, $52MM deal to play centerfield for the Bronx Bombers, Damon did not disappoint, giving the Yanks a valuable $49.6MM worth of production, despite nagging injuries throughout the course of the deal.

However, Damon could not stick in center and spent nearly all of his innings in left or in the DH slot from 2008-2009. This significantly lowers his value, and he also cost over a win because of defense alone. Seeing him play the field on a daily basis was not pretty in 2009, and the whole league already knows about his noodle arm. Simply put, Damon is not going to get any better on defense, although a slight bounceback in UZR is not out of the question (sample size issues, you know the deal).

As far as his hitting abilities go, there is no debate — Johnny Damon can still mash. In fact, he’s become a better hitter since coming to NY, even accounting for park/league factors. He set career highs in BB% in 2007 (11.0%) and again in 2009 (11.4%). After a few injuries in his first two seasons with the Yankees, Johnny racked up a ton of plate appearances in ’08-’09 and managed a wOBA over .370 both years. While he may still have the stigma of “leadoff guy” attached to him, he really doesn’t fit that bill. Regardless, Damon is a valuable bat going forward and should be a solid bet for .350 wOBA’s for the next year or two, assuming he stays healthy.

Superagent/villian Scott Boras is not settling for any one-year deals though. Some reports say that a four (!) year deal is going to be the deal breaker. Bobby Abreu, who the Yankees let go last offseason because of horrendous defense, just got a 2-year, $19MM contract from the Angels, and he was only half a win worse than Johnny last year, so Damon could still be a $10MM a year player. However I find it hard to believe that the Yankees would be willing to take such a big hit on defense again, and with Hideki Matsui also a free agent, it wouldn’t necessarily be a bad idea to bring Damon back as the primary DH and occasional corner outfielder. This lowers his value a bit (about -1 wins compared to LF) but he cost over a win on defense anyway, so he would be worth a tick more overall. There’s also the possibility that it helps him stay fresh and healthy throughout the season too.

Johnny Damon might not make a ton of sense as the Yankees’ left fielder of the future, especially now that the Yankees have four outfielders on the roster (Melky Cabrera, Brett Gardner, Curtis Granderson, and Jamie Hoffman, all of whom are capable centerfielders). However, he could be a great asset as the team’s DH. If he’ll take a similar deal to Abreu, the Yankees should bite.

When Proven Track Records Outweigh Statistics

Kerry Wood, infamous for his fragility, inked a two-year, $21 million contract with the Cleveland Indians after an eleven-year stint with the Cubs, ten if you discount his absent 1999 season. While most have been calling this a solid pickup for Cleveland’s sporadic bullpen, it is difficult to agree when Brian Fuentes, arguably a better reliever, signed a two-year, $17.5 million contract with the Angels soon after Wood changed teams. Furthermore, Wood is guaranteed a third year at $11 million if he pitches 55 games or more in one or both of the next two seasons. Fuentes has a club option for the 2011 season at $9 million.

Fuentes (LAA)

Wood (CLE)

Wood’s bane is his inability to stay healthy. Fuentes, on the other hand, has been placed on the disabled list just once in his Major League career, which began in 2001. Wood has been placed on the DL on eight separate occasions. Perhaps Kerry Wood’s saving grace is his propensity for the strikeout. In 2008, through 66 1/3 innings, he managed an 11.40 K/9 and an equally impressive 4.67 K/BB. Missing bats while maintaining control is a rare ability, even at the big league level. Despite Wood’s stellar peripherals, Brian Fuentes should not be forgotten. Fuentes posted a nearly identical 11.78 K/9 ratio, and showed a bit less control than Wood, compiling a 3.73 K/BB over 62 2/3 innings pitched for the Colorado Rockies.

If Kerry Wood is the better of the two closers, then maybe the Indians made the right choice, but it doesn’t make a ton of sense considering the bargain contract Fuentes received from another American League club. Any differences between the two pitchers’ production levels are minimal at most, and Wood’s durability will be in question as long as he’s still pitching. Brian is about as much of a rubber arm as you will find in the Major Leagues, right along with his new teammate Scot Shields.  Hopefully, when these contracts expire in two years, it will be obvious which club got more bang for their buck.

- Joe

Any questions, comments, criticism, or corrections? Leave a comment and I’ll get right on it. Statistical figures were, once again, taken from Fangraphs.com. I highly recommend it  for any sort of statistical references.

Sometimes, Being a GM Shouldn’t Be Too Difficult

Despite the fact that Guillen does hit his home runs, his extra-base hit totals were not exactly stellar until he knocked 40 doubles in 2008.

As a fan, it can be difficult to believe in the front offices of some organizations these days. Prior to the 2008 season, the Kansas City Royals handed Jose Guillen a three-year, $30 million contract. Guillen turned 32 on May 17, 2008 and posted an on-base percentage of .353 in 2007. Sounds fair enough to the average fan, right?

Wrong. Despite the apparently high OBP, Guillen’s lifetime statistics indicate, without a shadow of a doubt, that he is absolutely incapable of drawing even an average number of walks.

In 2003 – Jose Guillen’s career year by OPS+ standards – he drew 24 walks in 535 plate appearances. However, because of his high slugging percentage, he managed to put up a .391 wOBA. If a player is capable of a high OBP without drawing a lot of walks, is it a sign that he can hit for a high average to compensate, or is he just getting lucky?

When shown his career on-base of .323, it becomes apparent that in 2003, Jose Guillen was getting pretty damn lucky on a daily basis.

Guillen’s contributions in other seasons have been vastly overrated. If a player’s batting average in a given year deviates far from his career average, it is a telling sign that hits seem to be falling where they should not. Something as dependent on luck and circumstance as batting average is not repeatable at a high level year-to-year with the occasional exception (ex. Albert Pujols). To put it simply, if Guillen doesn’t have a lucky year, he’s more or less garbage.

Perhaps the most effective yet accessible statistic to evaluate offensive productivity is weighted runs created above average (wRAA) which is a more useful version of the weighted runs created formula (wRC). Guillen has posted positive wRAA values just three times in his career, which, sure enough, came during his age 27, 28, and 29 seasons (28.2, 16.1, 10.9 respectively).

Now, based on the incessant rumors linking Braves outfielder Jeff Francoeur (career OBP of .312) to the Royals last year, it has become pretty obvious to me that the Royals do not care much for players that know how to reach base. Having incapable players in your own system is one thing, but actively trying to acquire players who cannot get on base is even worse. Kansas City, a team that has made some questionable moves over the past few years, needs to stop going after the Jose Guillens and Francoeurs of the world if they are to turn themselves around. Signing below average corner outfielders who are past their prime years to multiyear, seven-figure salaried contracts is not the way to start. There’s more than a few reasons no team was willing to take Guillen off the Royals’ hands last summer.

- Joe

All statistics referenced in this post were taken directly from Fan Graphs (fangraphs.com) and Baseball Reference (baseball-reference.com). If you have any questions, comments or other insight that you wish to add, please comment. Thank you for reading and please check back often for new articles here at Incumbent GM.