Fantasy 2011: Players to Watch – NL East

Despite missing a third of the year, Utley was still one of baseball's most valuable players.

Chase Utley, 2B, Philadelphia Philies
- It’s easy to forget how good this guy is because of the injuries he sustained last year. Nevertheless, he managed to accrue 5.2 WAR in only 115 games. Wow. While Robinson Cano has become the trendy pick for the best keystone player in baseball, Utley is still the man. Chase also seemed a bit unlucky in terms of HR/FB% as well (11.2 in ’10, 13.6 career). A hitter with Utley’s power will typically exceed that number, so he should end up with 25-30 home runs again, assuming that he gets his usual 600 PAs. Mock Draft Central shows him at #43 overall, sandwiched between CC Sabathia and Dan Haren. You know what to do if a player of Utley’s caliber falls to you that late. Surprisingly, players like Rollins and Reyes are being taken before Utley, so using a 2nd or 3rd round pick to snag him is a good idea.

Josh Johnson, SP, Florida Marlins
- Johnson has put together a 3.20 FIP over 665 career innings, almost all of them as a starter, which is scary. If he played in a big market, he’d probably be a Cy Young Winner by now. Florida has to be happy that he signed an extension, but this doesn’t necessarily mean he won’t get traded away like every other Marlins star – if the right offer comes along, he could certainly find himself on a trip up the East Coast to Boston or New York. Regardless, he’s being drafted way too late. Mock Draft Central lists him at #83, between John Danks and Torii Hunter. This has to be due to his weak decision total last year (11-6 in 28 starts). Considering that Florida won 80 games, this is a bit surprising, but there’s a pretty good chance he’ll return to 15 wins or so in 2011. He’s as much of a sure thing as there is peripheral-wise, and he’d be one of the first pitchers taken if he got more wins. You’re not taking a chance on JJ if you can get him at any time after the 5th round or so, and if your league doesn’t count pitchers’ records heavily, take him earlier.

Mike Morse, 1B/OF, Washington Nationals
- The Nationals are known for a few distinct features that they boast: Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper and $100 million dollar man Jayson Werth. While the Zimmerman(n)s are arguably the team’s most valuable pieces going into the 2011 campaign, Mike Morse figures to get a decent number of PAs after bursting onto the scene last year. Once a top prospect in Seattle, Morse found himself in the minors on numerous occasions after failing to stick it in the bigs. In 2010 he managed to club 15 homers in ony 293 PAs, good for a .379 wOBA. His HR/FB% was almost 20, though, and his BABIP was a tick high for a career journeyman like himself (.330), but there’s no reason to think he can’t be useful if he gets enough playing time. Watch where he goes on the depth chart, and keep an eye on him if your club gets riddled with injuries. He’s not going to be drafted in your league unless his mother is managing a team, so there’s no need to use a pick, but he may come in handy down the road.

Fantasy 2011: Three Players to Watch – AL East

Here’s a few players to keep an eye on during your draft:

Rays GM Andrew Friedman is too smart to trade Shields for anything less than a big return.

James Shields, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
- He might be pitching for a different club next season, but he’s worth having regardless. Shields struck out more than 8 batters per nine last year, a career high, and his walk rate was basically the same as 2009. It also seems that the longball bit him far more often than it should, as 13.8% of fly balls left the park, a number that should come down a bit. If he returns to normalcy in 2011, expect him to perform like Dan Haren, picking up a solid number of wins and a healthy number of Ks. You can probably wait until the middle rounds to get him (think 8-10th). He’s at #102 on Mock Draft Central’s Average Draft Position leaderboard.

Luke Scott, OF/DH, Baltimore Orioles
- This guy seems to provide consistent, above-average production for the Orioles year in and year out. In 2010, he achieved new heights by posting a .387 wOBA. The best part is that his BABIP was a very normal .304, so his batting average should be pretty close to the .284 mark he put up. Home runs and walks are his calling card, though, so even if he loses a few base hits he’s still a threat, and likely the most underrated hitter of his caliber in all of baseball. Scott might finally start to gain respect from fans outside of the Mid-Atlantic, but there’s little reason for him to be drafted too early, and you’ll be able to grab him later than comparable guys like Adrian Gonzalez. Think about taking him around the 9th or 10th rounds if he’s still available. Mock Draft Central has him at #241, but assuming you’re playing in an ESPN or Yahoo! league, the default projections will cause him to go closer to #100 overall.

Aaron Hill, 2B, Toronto Blue Jays
- By far the most interesting of this trio, Hill was huge disappointment for the Blue Jays, hitting just .205/.271/.394 after posting a .357 wOBA in 2009. He notoriously posted the worst batting average on balls in play in the entire league (.196). What’s even more unusual is the fact that he has a .288 career mark in that category, and struck out only 16.1% of the time, and still Aaron barely kept his head above the Mendoza line. The best indicator of his bad season is the extremely low line drive percentage; just 10.6, compared to 18.5 for his career. He also hit more fly balls than ever before, leading me to believe that he got a little homer-happy after clubbing 36 home runs the year prior. Even still, his HR/FB rate was pretty low (10.8) for a power hitter, and no player in the game routinely posts BABIPs as low as .200, so Aaron likely got a little greedy and a lot unlucky in 2010, meaning that you should be able to draft him very late for a guy of his caliber, perhaps the 12th round or so. He has the potential to be the steal of the year; keep him in mind. Mock Draft Central’s board lists him at #46, which tells me that people are expecting him to bounce back big time. I like the other players in those rounds better (Uggla, Weeks, Kinsler), but if he drops much further than that, give him a serious look.