After the Red Sox won it all in 2004 and again in 2007, the Cubs unofficially became baseball’s goat, having not won the World Series in over 100 years (no, that is not a typo). Losing a 3-1 series lead (the 2003 NLCS) that brought them tantalizingly close to October’s Grand Finale didn’t help things. But to Chicago’s credit, they have not sat tight and watched themselves dwindle down in the standings each year. General manager Jim Hendry has put forth a great effort to bring in quality talent while maintaining a reasonable budget and developing the farm system, also. The problem is that some of Hendry’s moves — namely those he’s made in the past two years or so — have been absolutely atrocious.
Alfonso Soriano could end up being an albatross (many would argue that he has already). Ditto Carlos Zambrano. The bullpen has cost a few bucks — including the infamous John Grabow extension. And, of course, there is the golden fleece of disappointing free agents: Milton Bradley, who was recently traded to Seattle for the awful, awful Carlos Silva.
For me, the Bradley trade really damaged my image of the Chicago Cubs organization. He was a distraction to be sure, but he also put up a good on-base percentage in what was perceived as a bad year by the media. Silva, on the other hand, has been horrendous and hurt during his Mariners career, and even in his prime years, not particularly special. Only the Cubs know whether Bradley was tolerable in the clubhouse for the upcoming season, but it seems to me that they could have settled with him if the alternative was to trade him for a pitcher who can’t even maintain replacement level value.
Johnson's power was likely sapped by a combination of bad luck and spacious home ballparks.
The Yankees have been heavily criticized for losing Hideki Matsui’s services to the Angels, who picked him for a team-friendly one year deal at just over $6 million. But the Yanks were not about to stand pat and hand the DH spot to a AAA scrub. Now, just a few days after New York was lambasted for dropping their Japanese slugger, former Bombers prospect and first baseman Nick Johnson returns to his roots as a Yankee, and presumably the designated hitter position. The reported one-year, $5.5 MM deal has an team option for the same salary next season and is pending a physical.
In terms of wOBA, Matsui and Johnson were relative equals in 2009 (.378 and .373 respectively). With Mark Teixiera already in the fold, Nick’s defensive abilities won’t play much of a factor, but he has generally been positive defender throughout his career. Hideki, on the other hand, did not play a single inning on the field in 2009 and the Yankees were apparently not too keen on trying him there in 2010.
Considering their remarkable similarities in terms of cost and production, there shouldn’t be so much outrage regarding either Matsui’s departure or Johnson’s acquisition. However, because Nick’s game is more on-base centric than Matsui’s, I believe he is a better bet to sustain his production for the next few seasons. The short porch in right won’t hurt either, as NJ’s paltry total of 8 home runs last year is sure to increase (fly balls hit by Nick cleared the fence just 6.2% of the time, compared to his 13% career average). And for those who are waiting for the injury bug to make the Yankees look foolish, remember that Johnson has amassed over 500 plate appearances a year in three of his last four seasons (he missed all of 2007 and most of 2008). It’s not often that baseball players sustain broken leg injuries, so calling him a fragile player is quite unfair.
All of this being said, the Yankees probably would have been fine with either Hideki or Nick in the order next season, but Nick is still just 31 and could really surprise people by milking Yankee Stadium’s right field dimensions. If he’s healthy, look for his power numbers to rebound. It’s not beyond the realm of possibility that he could hit close to 30 HRs if given around 600 PAs.
Halladay should get a nice boost to his numbers by leaving the AL East.
It’s not often that a team acquires a pitcher of Roy Halladay’s magnitude. It’s even less often that a pitcher like Cliff Lee is traded twice in less than six months. But what really boggles my mind is how the Phillies traded Lee and prospects for Halladay, with the involvement of the Mariners as part of a menage-a-toi.
Philly tried to heal the newfound wounds created by giving up such a haul by acquiring prosepcts from Seattle (who received Lee) in addition to Halladay. Pitchers Phillippe Aumont, JC Ramirez outfielder Tyson Gillies join Doc Halladay in Philadelphia, Toronto gets pitcher Kyle Drabek, outfielder Michael Taylor and catcher Travis D’Arnaud from the Phillies, and the M’s get Cliff Lee. The Jays also sent the Phillies $6 million to offset Halladay’s salary.
Much of what you’ve read regarding this deal likely has the Phillies as losers despite landing the former Cy Young winner. Toronto makes out fairly well, picking up some terrific young players, opting for quality over quantity (hat tip to Minnesota GM Bill Smith for teaching us how not to trade ace pitchers). Seattle gives up a lot, but now they have a legitimate pair of aces that matches any one-two combination in the game. It’s clear that the Mariners are gunning for it this year.
I would not call Phillies GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. stupid for making this trade. However, it is a bit nonsensical. If the idea was to land another big pitcher, then the team should not have traded one away. There is no logic behind trading an asset for another, relatively similar asset, which is the exact reason you do not often see star-for-star trades. Amaro tries to slap a Band-Aid on the situation by picking up the Mariners prospects, who are certainly good, and arguably as good of a package that the Blue Jays received, but the point stands nonetheless. The Phillies major league roster did not get much better, if at all. Lee is inferior to Halladay by a small quantifiable amount, and pitching is too volatile for this difference to justify the trade in and of itself.
It would be foolish to write off Amaro as the one to call a false bluff this soon. The Phils picked up some valuable pieces for the farm system, and if even one of the three prospects becomes a MLB star, then the trade looks pretty ingenious. However, prospects are a gamble, and even first-round picks are prone to injuries, immaturity and ineffectiveness. Considering how easily the Phillies pried Cliff Lee from the Indians last summer, they should have walked away with their winnings and addressed other aspects of the team, like third base (and not signed Placido Polanco to play there).
I am not that concerned about the discrepancy between Halladay and Lee this coming season. They will both be quite effective for their clubs. Only if the Phillies felt that Lee would regress to his pre-2008 ability does this trade help them immediately. Halladay is, once again, the superior pitcher, but if both pitchers maintain their current level of production, Lee is, at worst, about a WAR behind (he projects at about 6.5, Halladay in the low 7s). If the prospects turn out — and they very well could, as they are legitimate blue chippers — this could be a subtle victory for Ruben Amaro, Jr. and crew. But if Cliff Lee takes the AL West by storm and the Blue Jays turn into a young juggernaut in a few years, a la Tampa Bay, it’s going to be a tough crowd.
Carrasco quitely became one of Chicago's more stable relievers.
You would think that pitchers who post sub-4.00 FIPs in the American League for two years running would be a valuable commodity. You would also think that, when being paid the Major League minimum salary, the player is a bargain. So giving such a pitcher a raise from about $400k a year to say, $2 million doesn’t seem like a big deal right?
Apparently the White Sox were not willing to do so.
DJ Carrasco, formerly a Royals prospect and now a solid big league bullpen guy, has been non-tendered by Chicago. Apparently the South Siders were not willing to risk paying him an arbitration award, which would have likely been $2-3 million tops. For what it’s worth, Carrasco was worth $5.8MM last year.
Considering the fact that the team lost Octavio Dotel to free agency, it would have made sense to bring back the younger, cheaper player in DJ Carrasco. You can’t exactly burn Kenny Williams at the stakes for this move but the bullpen would have only been better with one of these guys back.
If the team offered him arbitration and tried to trade him, he wouldn’t be worth hardly anything because of his impending salary. While small, it would more or less eliminate small-market teams from the Sox’ list of trade candidates. But someone will throw him a one-year, $1MM deal and reap the benefits soon enough.
Damon's left handed pull tendencies are perfect for Yankee Stadium.
Johnny Damon stood in the limelight of the 2005 Winter Meetings as he jumped ship from Beantown to New York. Given a 4-year, $52MM deal to play centerfield for the Bronx Bombers, Damon did not disappoint, giving the Yanks a valuable $49.6MM worth of production, despite nagging injuries throughout the course of the deal.
However, Damon could not stick in center and spent nearly all of his innings in left or in the DH slot from 2008-2009. This significantly lowers his value, and he also cost over a win because of defense alone. Seeing him play the field on a daily basis was not pretty in 2009, and the whole league already knows about his noodle arm. Simply put, Damon is not going to get any better on defense, although a slight bounceback in UZR is not out of the question (sample size issues, you know the deal).
As far as his hitting abilities go, there is no debate — Johnny Damon can still mash. In fact, he’s become a better hitter since coming to NY, even accounting for park/league factors. He set career highs in BB% in 2007 (11.0%) and again in 2009 (11.4%). After a few injuries in his first two seasons with the Yankees, Johnny racked up a ton of plate appearances in ‘08-’09 and managed a wOBA over .370 both years. While he may still have the stigma of “leadoff guy” attached to him, he really doesn’t fit that bill. Regardless, Damon is a valuable bat going forward and should be a solid bet for .350 wOBA’s for the next year or two, assuming he stays healthy.
Superagent/villian Scott Boras is not settling for any one-year deals though. Some reports say that a four (!) year deal is going to be the deal breaker. Bobby Abreu, who the Yankees let go last offseason because of horrendous defense, just got a 2-year, $19MM contract from the Angels, and he was only half a win worse than Johnny last year, so Damon could still be a $10MM a year player. However I find it hard to believe that the Yankees would be willing to take such a big hit on defense again, and with Hideki Matsui also a free agent, it wouldn’t necessarily be a bad idea to bring Damon back as the primary DH and occasional corner outfielder. This lowers his value a bit (about -1 wins compared to LF) but he cost over a win on defense anyway, so he would be worth a tick more overall. There’s also the possibility that it helps him stay fresh and healthy throughout the season too.
Johnny Damon might not make a ton of sense as the Yankees’ left fielder of the future, especially now that the Yankees have four outfielders on the roster (Melky Cabrera, Brett Gardner, Curtis Granderson, and Jamie Hoffman, all of whom are capable centerfielders). However, he could be a great asset as the team’s DH. If he’ll take a similar deal to Abreu, the Yankees should bite.
Kerry Wood, infamous for his fragility, inked a two-year, $21 million contract with the Cleveland Indians after an eleven-year stint with the Cubs, ten if you discount his absent 1999 season. While most have been calling this a solid pickup for Cleveland’s sporadic bullpen, it is difficult to agree when Brian Fuentes, arguably a better reliever, signed a two-year, $17.5 million contract with the Angels soon after Wood changed teams. Furthermore, Wood is guaranteed a third year at $11 million if he pitches 55 games or more in one or both of the next two seasons. Fuentes has a club option for the 2011 season at $9 million.
Fuentes (LAA)
Wood (CLE)
Wood’s bane is his inability to stay healthy. Fuentes, on the other hand, has been placed on the disabled list just once in his Major League career, which began in 2001. Wood has been placed on the DL in eight ( 8 ) separate instances. Perhaps Kerry Wood’s saving grace is his propensity for the strikeout. In 2008, through 66 1/3 innings, he managed an 11.40 K/9 and an equally impressive 4.67 K/BB. Missing bats while maintaining control is a rare ability, even at the big league level. Despite Wood’s stellar peripherals, Brian Fuentes should not be forgotten. Fuentes posted a nearly identical 11.78 K/9 ratio, and showed a bit less control than Wood, compiling a 3.73 K/BB over 62 2/3 innings pitched for the Colorado Rockies.
If Kerry Wood is the better of the two closers, then maybe the Indians made the right choice, but it doesn’t make a ton of sense considering the bargain contract Fuentes received from another American League club. Any differences between the two pitchers’ production levels are minimal at most, and Wood’s durability will be in question as long as he’s still pitching. Brian is about as much of a rubber arm as you will find in the Major Leagues, right along with his new teammate Scot Shields. Hopefully, when these contracts expire in two years, it will be obvious which club got more bang for their buck.
- Joe
Any questions, comments, criticism, or corrections? Leave a comment and I’ll get right on it. Statistical figures were, once again, taken from Fangraphs.com. I highly recommend it for any sort of statistical references.
Despite the fact that Guillen does hit his home runs, his extra-base hit totals were not exactly stellar until he knocked 40 doubles in 2008.
As a fan, it can be difficult to believe in the front offices of some organizations these days. Prior to the 2008 season, the Kansas City Royals handed Jose Guillen a three-year, $30 million contract. Guillen turned 32 on May 17, 2008 and posted an on-base percentage of .353 in 2007. Sounds fair enough to the average fan, right?
Wrong. Despite the apparently high OBP, Guillen’s lifetime statistics indicate, without a shadow of a doubt, that he is absolutely incapable of drawing even an average number of walks.
In 2003 – Jose Guillen’s career year by OPS+ standards – he drew 24 walks in 535 plate appearances. However, because of his high slugging percentage, he managed to put up a .391 wOBA. If a player is capable of a high OBP without drawing a lot of walks, is it a sign that he can hit for a high average to compensate, or is he just getting lucky?
When shown his career on-base of .323, it becomes apparent that in 2003, Jose Guillen was getting pretty damn lucky on a daily basis.
Guillen’s contributions in other seasons have been vastly overrated. If a player’s batting average in a given year deviates far from his career average, it is a telling sign that hits seem to be falling where they should not. Something as dependent on luck and circumstance as batting average is not repeatable at a high level year-to-year with the occasional exception (ex. Albert Pujols). To put it simply, if Guillen doesn’t have a lucky year, he’s more or less garbage.
Perhaps the most effective yet accessible statistic to evaluate offensive productivity is weighted runs created above average (wRAA) which is a more useful version of the weighted runs created formula (wRC). Guillen has posted positive wRAA values just three times in his career, which, sure enough, came during his age 27, 28, and 29 seasons (28.2, 16.1, 10.9 respectively).
Now, based on the incessant rumors linking Braves outfielder Jeff Francoeur (career OBP of .312) to the Royals last year, it has become pretty obvious to me that the Royals do not care much for players that know how to reach base. Having incapable players in your own system is one thing, but actively trying to acquire players who cannot get on base is even worse. Kansas City, a team that has made some questionable moves over the past few years, needs to stop going after the Jose Guillens and Francoeurs of the world if they are to turn themselves around. Signing below average corner outfielders who are past their prime years to multiyear, seven-figure salaried contracts is not the way to start. There’s more than a few reasons no team was willing to take Guillen off the Royals’ hands last summer.
- Joe
All statistics referenced in this post were taken directly from Fan Graphs (fangraphs.com) and Baseball Reference (baseball-reference.com). If you have any questions, comments or other insight that you wish to add, please comment. Thank you for reading and please check back often for new articles here at Incumbent GM.
The first in-depth article is going to be OPS (on-base plus slugging) related. This poll should be a good indicator of popular opinions on the two components of OPS. Rack the vote.
Thanks for stopping by my brand new blog, Incumbent GM. I also created baseball blogs Salary Dump and Unsung Yankees. I hope that my posts are informative, but also spark debate in the ever-controversial baseball community. Trades, free agent signings and more will be analyzed, and as always, I encourage your input – the readers are the ones who keep the site going. Enjoy.
Posted by Joe 
